President Alassane Ouattara is seeking a fourth term in Ivory Coast’s 2025 presidential election, despite growing concerns over the democratic legitimacy of the race. With four major opposition figures disqualified, and the electoral commission under scrutiny, many are questioning whether the October 25 vote is shaping up to be a democratic exercise, or a pre-determined outcome.
A Fourth Term: Ouattara Holds His Ground
On July 29, 2025, Ouattara officially announced his candidacy under the ruling RHDP party banner, putting an end to months of speculation. His decision, though unsurprising, has reignited a storm of legal and political controversy. Critics argue that a fourth term violates constitutional limits, despite claims by his supporters that the 2016 constitutional reform reset the term count.
In 2020, his controversial third-term bid sparked deadly clashes and left over 85 dead. His latest candidacy now revives fears of further political tension, especially given the absence of viable opposition figures on the ballot.
Ivory Coast 2025 Election: A Purged Opposition
Four heavyweight contenders have been barred from running:
- Laurent Gbagbo, former president (2000–2011), struck from the voter registry despite his acquittal at the ICC.
- Guillaume Soro, exiled and still under international arrest warrant.
- Charles Blé Goudé, Gbagbo’s former youth minister, also banned.
- Tidjane Thiam, leader of the opposition PDCI, excluded over alleged nationality issues.
These legal decisions, endorsed by the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), have drawn widespread condemnation. The opposition accuses the government of hand-picking its challengers. In June 2025, the PDCI and PPA-CI formed a common front demanding the reinstatement of disqualified candidates and an overhaul of the CEI, so far, to no avail.
Authorized but Marginal: Simone Gbagbo and Affi N’Guessan
Two familiar names have been cleared to run, though neither is expected to threaten Ouattara’s dominance:
- Simone Ehivet Gbagbo, former First Lady, now divorced from Laurent Gbagbo, leads the MGC (Generations Capables Movement) with a platform focused on social justice. At 76, she remains a symbolic figure but lacks national momentum.
- Pascal Affi N’Guessan, former prime minister (2000–2003), heads the once-powerful FPI (Ivorian Popular Front). Having lost to Ouattara in both 2015 and 2020, his call for a “Fourth Republic” has so far gained little traction.
Their presence on the ballot gives the appearance of pluralism, but for many observers, they represent a token opposition.
Civil Society and Outsiders Try to Fill the Void
A few candidates from outside the traditional party system have entered the race:
- Assalé Tiémoko Antoine, investigative journalist and MP, has built a strong following among young urban voters.
- Jean-Louis Billon, former commerce minister and former PDCI figure, brings an economic agenda but lacks party backing.
- Vincent Toh Bi Irié, former governor of Abidjan, positions himself as an independent technocrat.
While dynamic, these candidates face structural hurdles, limited media access, and fragmented support bases. All candidacies must be validated by the CEI before August 26.
A Controlled Campaign, A Tense Environment
International observers have voiced concern over the electoral climate: pro-government media dominance, police repression of dissent, and politicized judiciary decisions. Despite this, the government insists the October 25 vote will be transparent.
But with major opponents sidelined and institutions aligned with the executive, the 2025 election risks being more of a reconfirmation than a choice. As one diplomat put it anonymously: “It’s a democracy in form, but in form only.”
A Presidency Without Challenge?
At 83, Ouattara is betting on longevity over legitimacy. While the ruling RHDP celebrates his economic record and leadership, many Ivorians are weary of a political scene stripped of competition. In West Africa, where democratic backsliding has become endemic, Ivory Coast may soon join the list of states where elections serve not to decide power, but to justify its retention.
